Building a Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – (Part I)

Building a Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – (Part I)

Setting up your Spreadsheet

Building a Poisson Probability Football Betting Model isn’t as hard as it seems.   It will require a fair amount of work.  But once you are up and running and understand whats happening, then you can really develop and move onto more complex models.

Building a Poisson Probability Football Betting Model

If you haven’t already, then you should read this article.  “How to build a Football Betting Model”.

This will give you an insight of whats involved and the journey you’re about to embark on.

Getting Started

You’ll need a spreadsheet application, hopefully you have Excel, as this contains all the prebuilt formulas we need as we as the ones we develop ourselves.

Open the Spreadsheet.

We’re going to focus on the upcoming Premier League Season for this guide. If you want to use a different league, that is fine, just change the teams names as appropriate later on.

Create the following 5 tabs.  The 1 we’ll be working on first will be ‘Premier League’

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Tabs

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Tabs

Designing the Layout – Premier League Tab

Select the ‘Premier League’ Tab.

The header should be made up of 3 rows, the main data will be in row 3.

Within the Fixture details section, the ‘Fixture’ & ‘ Week’ columns are the only essential ones for what needs to be done.  The others serve for information only as part of this process.  So feel free to leave them out if you require.

Home Goal Calculations

The Home Goal Calculations (Overall) will determine the Home stats for the fixture head to head

 

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

AS = Attack Strength

DW = Defensive Weakness

POI = Poisson Probability

0-7 = Possibile number of Home goals  (You can extend this to 8 and beyond if you wish, but its not really required)

Match Day Data

The next section is Match Day Data

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

This is the key section.  This is where all the match day probabilities will display.  From here you will be able to see what the Poisson Probability for a Home Win, Away Win and a Draw are.   You will also be able to see which ‘Goals Data’ Bet is the best for each match.

HR = Home Result

PD = (League) Position Difference – Home

Pos = (League) Position – Home

Home Team = Home Team

HS = Home Score

(HT) =  Half Time Score – Home team

POI Pred = Poisson Probability Prediction (Home, Away or Draw – Highest % probability)

POI Score = Poisson Probability Score (Most likely Score)

POI Goals Data = Poisson Probability Goals Market Data

Actual = Actual Score

(HT) = Half Time Score – Away team

AS = Away Score

Away Team = Away Team

Pos = (League) Position – Away

PD = (League) Position Difference – Away

AR = Away Result

Away Goal Calculations

The Away Goal Calculations (Overall) will determine the Away stats for the fixture head to head

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

AS = Attack Strength

DW = Defensive Weakness

POI = Poisson Probability

0-7 = Possibile number of Away goals  (You can extend this to 8 and beyond if you wish, but its not really required)

Poisson Probability – All Possible Scores

The Final section of this tab is the All Possible Scores section.

Based on the Home and Away Goal Calculations sections, create a list of all the possible scores between 0 and 7

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

Start with all the draws.  0-0 to 7-7.  Then all the Home Wins in the order as above, followed by the away wins as show below.

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

POI Calcs – The Results

The Results are what is needed next, this is where the Poisson probability % calculation for Home Win, Away Win and Draw will take place

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Calculations – Goals Data

The final section of this tab is the Goals Data section

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

This is where the Poisson Probability Calculations for the Goals Markets will occur.

Under 0.5 Goals to Under 4.5 Goals

BTTS = Both Teams to Score

HCS = Home Clean Sheet

ACS = Away Clean Sheet

Over 0.5 Goals to Over 4.5 Goals

 

Thats the first tab of the spreadsheet set up.  Make sure you Save your work, go back through and check everything.

The Premier League tab should now be looking like this.

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your Columns

With the “All Possible Scores’ Section inbetween.   For purposes of fitting it all in, its not shown here.

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model - Name your Columns

Poisson Probability Football Betting Model – Name your ColumnsIn

In our next post, we’ll start designing the Stats UK – POI tab (click here).  You are well on your way to having your first Football Betting Model.

Make sure you follow our page on Facebook – How to build a Football Betting Model for all the updates

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