Premier League Preview – Week 9

Premier League Preview

Weekends Predictions

The Premier League returns to action this week after the final round of Euro 2016 Qualifiers.

Once again, using the Poisson Probability calculation we have come up with our predictions.

The third column represents the most probably result based upon all the possibly scores.  The percentages of probability are taken from building the home teams attack strength, and the away teams defensive weakness and feeding them into the Poisson calculation to get the probability percentage of them scoring 0 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals and so on.

Combining the two teams scores for 0-0, 1-0 etc covering all possibilities, the totals are then added together to provide the overall % of a home win, draw or away win.

Column 4 shows the most likely possibly score, which may differ from the possibly result depending upon the accumulation of the percentages.  However, we are only interested in the Full Time Result Market on this occasion.


Premier League Predictions - Week 9 - Poisson Model

Manchester City, even without the likes of Aguero and Silva should have far too much for Bournemouth.
Chelsea need a win and despite being out of sorts themselves so far this season, the should be comfortably beating Aston Villa.  All 5 of the last meetings have produced >2.5 goals and once again this goal market prediction is flagging up.

Will the Klopp affect have an instant reaction for Liverpool against Spurs? Brendon’s Reds had won on the last 2 visits to White Hart Lane by 3-0 and 5-0.   No sign of that this year though as Spurs look a lot stronger outfit at home.

Watford and Arsenals clash will be a tight one, Watford have only scored and conceded once this season, and if Arsenal don’t break through early the tend to run out of ideas.  This one is flagging as <2.5 in the goals market.

Premier League: Last time out

Last time out we got 50% strike rate with 5 out of 10 right

Some strange results in the Premier League last week, notably Chelsea’s collapse at home to Southampton, happily we got that one spot on !!

Arsenal swept away Manchester United and Liverpools, somewhat lucky, point against Everton wasn’t enough for Rodgers to keep his job.

Premier League Predictions - Results - Week 8


My bets for this round of fixtures will be a safe(ish) home double.

Chelsea to BEAT Aston Villa
Manchester City to BEAT Bournemouth

1.77/1 – Bet365 – £10.00 returns £17.70
1.85/1- Bet Fred – £10.00 returns £18.50
1.76/1 – Ladbrokes – £10.00 returns £17.60
1.77/1 – Sky Bet – £10.00 returns £17.70

and a slightly more risky away double

Sunderland to WIN AT West Bromwich Albion
Norwich City to WIN AT Newcastle United

11.20/1 – Bet365 – £10.00 returns £112.00
12.47/1- Bet Fred – £10.00 returns £124.70
2.75/1 – Ladbrokes – £10.00 returns £22.75
10.64/1 – Sky Bet – £10.00 returns £106.40

Goals Market

If you are interested in the Goals Market (<2.5, BTTS, >2.5), 3 games have been flagged as good bets.

Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
Watford v Arsenal

Are both showing as <2.5 goals for the game.

Chelsea v Aston Villa

Flagging as >2.5 goals

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