League Two Preview – Week 13

League Two Preview

Poisson Probability

League Two also offers a full fixture list this weekend.

The third column represents the most probably result based upon all the possibly scores.  The percentages of probability are taken from building the home teams attack strength, and the away teams defensive weakness and feeding them into the Poisson calculation to get the probability percentage of them scoring 0 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals and so on.

Combining the two teams scores for 0-0, 1-0 etc covering all possibilities, the totals are then added together to provide the overall % of a home win, draw or away win.

Column 4 shows the most likely possibly score, which may differ from the possibly result depending upon the accumulation of the percentages.  However, we are only interested in the Full Time Result Market on this occasion.

A few games are looking tempting.   Notts County and Leyton Orient both receiving a high percentage probability of a home win.

League Two Predictions

Last weeks results

Taking a quick look at the weekends results from League Two we can see that 7 of the 11 games were predicted correctly, a 64% strike rate   A couple of unexpected results, such as Leyton Orient lsing away at bottom of the table Crewe Alexandra.

Plymouth continued there good form extending their unbeaten run to 6.

League Two Predictions Results

Predictions

My bet for this round of fixtures will be a mixed double’s.  One home, and one away.

Notts County to BEAT Yeovil Town
Wycombe Wanderers to WIN AT Stevenage

3.59/1 – Bet365 – £10.00 returns £35.90
3.59/1- Bet Fred – £10.00 returns £35.90
3.40/1 – Ladbrokes – £10.00 returns £34.00
3.30/1 – Sky Bet – £10.00 returns £33.00

Goals Market

If you are interested in the Goals Market (<2.5, BTTS, >2.5), 5 games have been flagged as good bets.

Mansfield Town v Bristol Rovers
Plymouth Argyle v Accrington Stanley
Stevenage v Wycombe Wanderers

All showing as <2.5 goals for the game.

Carlisle United v Exeter City

Flagging as >2.5 goals and BTTS

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